• Air Pollution is responsible for an estimated 6.7 million annual premature deaths globally (WHO, 2022).

• Cruise ship emissions are a visible source of urban pollition in coastal cities, with increasing attention to mitigation strategies like the use of on-shore power while in port

• Research Gap: Lack of empirical analysis in the context of New York City, emphasizing the need for a data-driven approach.

• Only terminal on the east coast with shore power system designed to reduce emissions

• Installed in 2016 at the cost of $21M

• Red Hook neighborhood has worst air quality in Brooklyn (NYC.gov, 2023)

• Policy Context: New York City considering local law Int. 1050, requiring cruise ships to use on-shore power by 2028 at all ports (including Manattan Cruise Terminal)

• What level of expected improvement in air quality can be expected as a result of improvements to New York City cruise ship terminals and proposed new regulations that will require all cruise ships to use on-shore power by 2028?

  • What feature set among available inputs will best predict air quality in the absence of consideration of cruise ship inputs?

  • Does the inclusion of cruise ship features measurably improve these results?

• Selection of PM 2.5 as a critical parameter due to its known health impacts and reliable measurement methods

• Methodological research included use of circular data (wind direction) and PM 2.5 readings from Purple Air

• Studies from Europe (Hrvoje, 2011; Ruiz-Guerra et al, 2019; Fabregat et al, 2021) and Canada (Poplawski et al, 2011) support cruise ship emissions as measurably impacting on-shore air quality, typically using linear regression

• No studies found to document this relationship in New York City, or using non-parametric methods to identify feature set

• Weather and airquality data at the Port is taken from a Dyson Instruments weather station located adjacent to the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal

• Observations are taken in 15 minute increments, starting July 11, 2023

• Ship docking data is taken from Port of New York, hourly, and the EDC for information on whether ships can access the on-shore power or must use the generator (all ships outside of BCT use generators)

• Additional data taken from Purple Air sensor at Dyberry farm as a control for wildfire smoke

  • Also explored alternative method of using wood-smake adjusted AQI as a target

• Weather data features evaluated include temperature, dew point, heat bulb index, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, air pressure reported at average, low, and high as well as rain in inches

• Highly correlated weather features pruned to include only average value

• Wind direction converted to radians and then defined by the sine and cosine of theta to avoid correlation

• Cruise ship compatibility is taken from the EDC and extrapolated to ship dockings in July

• PM 2.5 levels from Purple Air corrected based on EPA

• Weather data aggregated hourly (average value, except for rain which is summed) to join with cruise ship data and control sensor data from Purple Air

• Final data set has 17 features, 5 possible targets, and 3,396 observations across 141 days (some days contain more than 24 observations because there may be more than one ship present)

## NULL

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_smooth()`).

## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values (`geom_point()`).

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_smooth()`).
## Removed 4 rows containing missing values (`geom_point()`).

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## Warning: Removed 13 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_smooth()`).

## Warning: Removed 13 rows containing missing values (`geom_point()`).